Gordon Brown – in memoriam.

Well he’s finally done it, like a bullied teenager forced into taking weed by his peers, Gordon Brown has bottled it and given into pressure. He has resigned after spending only 3 years in the job he has lusted after for practically his entire political career. After taking Labour to it’s worst result since 1983, Brown has taken the hint and left No 10.

Fuck it, I don't care anymore. You're all FUCKING BIGOTS.

A year ago, the Tories would have been ecstatic if Brown had stepped down – now they’re running about like headless chickens, terrified that the one major stumbling block between a Lib-Lab coalition has been removed. Despite the Lib Dems being closer to the Labour party in the political views of their electorate and MP’s, it was clear that there was no way Nick Clegg was going to prop up a Labour PM as popular as the bastard offspring of Myra Hindley and Saddam Hussein.  Brown was despised in Middle England due to his being Scottish public relations difficulties.

Now with Brown out the way, a deal between the Lib Dems and Labour – while not ideal – is a lot more credible. There’s the obvious attack that’s going to come from the Tories and their allies about one unelected PM being replaced with another, but ultimately it’s the politicians who make the decisions, like it or lump it. And a youthful Blairite PM like David Miliband might not be too unpopular in the Home Counties marginals Labour need to retake in the future.

The biggest stumbling block left after Brown’s departure now though is the arithmetic. Despite taking 52% of the popular vote across the UK, Labour and the Lib Dems together do not have over half the seats. In order to form a stable Government, they would need to put together support from an eclectic mix of Democratic Unionists, Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists.

The SDLP have already said their preference is for a Lib Lab pact, and the SNP have been calling for the Lib Dems to explore alternatives to an alliance with the Tories correctly saying that their vote would be badly damaged if they enforced a Tory Government on Scotland. Despite the SNP’s obvious rivalry with Labour it’s leadership know the Scottish people will judge them very harshly if they did anything to stop Labour from keeping the Tories out.

While the Tories Unionist allies are non-existent, the Democratic Unionists do have 8 MP’s in Northern Ireland who could be potential kingmakers in a coalition. Whilst they have officially said they are not opposed in principle to a Lib Lab pact, they are clearly on the right of the political spectrum and would fit more comfortably with the Conservatives.The arithmetic still does not add up though. A Lab-Lib-SDLP pact would not have a majority and neither would a Tory-DUP pact. The SNP, Plaid Cymru, Alliance and Green MP’s would hold real power over decisions.

There’s another issue which makes an elaborate coalition unstable – English Nationalist resentment. While the Tories may have taken only 36% across the UK, in England they have a clear lead of 40% to Labour’s 28%. If a Government dependent on Scottish Labour, Scottish Liberal and other Nationalist MP’s from within the UK enact cuts on English public services you can bet the Tories, UKIP and BNP will attack them for enforcing a dictatorship on the English electorate.

Lets hope the SNP negotiate to ensure these scenes are never repeated again.

There’s already been discontent brewing south of the border on the issue of Labour’s legitimacy to govern England – in 2005 Labour got less votes than the Tories in England for example, but more seats. This is alongside the West Lothian question where Scottish MP’s can vote on decisions that only affect England, and the Barnett formula where Scots receive more funding per head in public services than their English counterparts.

A lot of these concerns are pish – 52% of English voters did support the Liberals and Labour, and the Barnett formula does not take into account Scotland’s massive subsidies to Westminster in Oil money. But the principle would remain – Labour and the Lib Dem’s would rely on Scottish , Irish and Welsh MP’s to govern. Any negotiations to spare cuts from their respective parts of the UK would be attacked in the Tory press as robbing from England.

This would be a difficult situation for a Government in normal circumstances, but this is a Government that needs to enact brutal public service cuts the likes of which have not been seen in generations. When the schools, hospitals, and jobs start to go you can bet MP’s in marginal seats will feel the pressure to defy the whip to save their own skins. A lost by-election or two could scupper the entire Government’s spending plans. This is not a stable environment to make the UK a profitable place for capitalism again.

That’s why the Tories (and probably the markets too) are desperate to keep the Lib Dems in a pact with them. They are the most stable offer on the table, with both parties having a clear majority when put together – and enough breathing space in case any MP’s rebel. But right now it appears the Lib Dems know they won’t get this chance again to hold so much power, and are demanding a voting system that takes their support into account. That could mean the end forever for single party Tory rule, and it’s whether or not that’s an acceptable price to pay for one stable Government that the Tories are mulling over just now.

Armando Iannucci already described in detail what a hung parliament might be like in 1997,